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Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10 ARLP010-24
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP010 ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP10 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10 ARLP010 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA March 8, 2024 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP010 ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA Until March 6, new sunspot groups emerged daily over the past reporting week, February 29 through March 6. One new sunspot group appeared every day on February 29 through March 3, then two new groups on March 4 and another on March 5. It seems odd, but average daily sunspot number was about the same (changing from 106.4 to 106.7), but the average daily solar flux had a substantial drop, from 175 to 147.4. Average daily planetary A index was up from 8.4 to 10, while middle latitude numbers rose from 7.4 to 8. The March 3 planetary A index was 29. Spaceweather.com reported a G2 geomagnetic storm at 0930 UTC. On March 7 they said NOAA expects a minor storm on March 9. The solar flux forecast sees a short term peak at 180 on March 21-23 and another on April 17-19. Predicted solar flux is 140 on March 8-9, 145 on March 10-12, then 140 and 135 on March 13-14, then 170 on March 15-16, then 165, 160, 170 and 175 on March 17-20, 180 on March 21-23, 175 on March 24-25, 170 on March 26-27, 160 on March 28-29, then 165 and 145 on March 30-31, then 140 on April 1-2, 135 on April 3-8, and 140, 160, 170, 170, 165 and 160 on April 9-14. Predicted planetary A index is 8 on March 8-10, 5 on March 11-23, then 15, 12, 12, 5, 10, and 8 on March 24-29, and 5 on March 30 through April 5, then 12 and 10 on April 6-7, and 5 on April 8 through the middle of the month and beyond. Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere - March 7, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH: "Active region AR3590 which swelled to the largest of the 25th solar cycle in February and where the largest flare was observed, was located on the northwestern limb of the disk in early March, whereupon it was observed by the Mars rover Perseverance from Jezero Crater (Jezero means Lake in Czech). "From the solar flare on February 28, the CME arrived at Earth on March 3 - one day later than predicted. It triggered a G3 class geomagnetic disturbance, which began by developing a positive storm phase with a significant increase in MUF. It continued over the next three days in a negative phase with a significant decrease in MUF and an increase in attenuation, especially in the polar regions. "Neither major flares nor major geomagnetic activity are expected in the next few days. Therefore, propagation will gradually improve to slightly above average. We expect a significant improvement around the equinox. This time, however, the improvement will be more pronounced as solar activity will gradually increase in the meantime." The Vernal Equinox occurs at 0306 UTC, March 20 and marks the beginning of Spring in the Northern Hemisphere and the Autumnal Equinox in the Southern Hemisphere. Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research is looking for volunteers: https://bit.ly/4a43yZk From DailyMotion, an August 2022 solar video: https://bit.ly/3v0RARw Space.com article about the April 8 solar eclipse: https://bit.ly/3PdXnKl Eclipse missions: https://stardate.org/podcast/2024-03-07 An article about solar dynamo behavior during a Grand Solar Minima: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-55317-w From LiveScience, is the peak of Solar Cycle 25 already here? https://bit.ly/3Taxe0p A quiet Sun: https://bit.ly/3T98PIh Thanks to W7WKR for this article about Maritime Radio Historical Society Station KPH: https://bit.ly/49Fpjiz [Station K6KPH also transmits W1AW Qualifying Run transmissions: https://www.radiomarine.org/mrhs-stations/blog-post-title-four-r3jyw -Ed.] Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating. For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere . An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ . Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins . Sunspot numbers for February 29 through March 6 2024 were 107, 120, 91, 90, 113, 121, and 105, with a mean of 106.7. 10.7 cm flux was 164.1, 152.8, 152.3, 145.5, 139.9, 141.5, and 136, with a mean of 147.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 9, 5, 29, 10, 7, and 6, with a mean of 10. Middle latitude A index was 4, 9, 3, 20, 8, 7, and 5, with a mean of 8. NNNN /EX
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