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Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6 ARLP006-24
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP006 ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP06 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6 ARLP006 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA February 9, 2024 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP006 ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA Over the recent reporting week, February 1-7, ten new sunspot groups emerged, five on February 1, one on February 2, another on February 3, two on February 5, and one more on February 7. On February 8, two more emerged. Sunspot numbers and solar flux rose, and geomagnetic numbers were quiet. Average daily sunspot number increased from 71.8 to 142.3, and average daily solar flux from 145.4 to 165.5. Geomagnetic conditions were quieter. Average daily planetary A index decreased from 6.9 to 5.1, and average middle latitude numbers from 5.6 to 4.4. Now let's see what the outlook might be over the next few weeks, with data from the US Air Force and NOAA. Predicted solar flux is 180 on February 9, then 175, 175, 180 and 175 on February 10-13, 178 on February 14-15, 170 on February 16, 160 on February 17-21, then 165 and 160 on February 22-23, 150 on February 24-28, then 155, 160 and 165 on February 29 through March 2, 170 on March 3-5, 160 on March 6-9, 170 on March 10, 165 on March 11-13, 170 on March 14, and 160 on March 15-19. Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12 and 8 on February 9-11, 5 on February 12-25, then 8 and 7 on February 26-27, then 5 on February 28 through March 2, 10 on March 3-4, 5 on March 5-23. Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere - February 8, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH: "As recently as early January, it appeared that the peak of the current eleven-year cycle would soon be passed, or perhaps even passed late last year. But January's upsurge in solar activity led us astray, and February, it seems, could be even more lively. "Surprise number two is that although we are seeing moderate flares on the Sun, some of which are proton flares and a few of which are accompanied by CMEs, the solar wind around the Earth is intensifying little. "Surprise number three, though related to the previous one, is the decline in the Earth's magnetic field activity for more than a month. "Finally, surprise number four is that although solar activity is relatively high, while geomagnetic activity is low, the shortwave propagation conditions (as defined at frequencies of 3-30 MHz) are not nearly as good as we have become accustomed to during decades of similar developments. "Even from the proton solar flare with CME ejection observed on February 6, we expect the Earth to be hit by an enhanced solar wind with a subsequent, at least slight, rise in geomagnetic field activity. This should occur between evening hours of UTC 9 February, and the following morning. So, the question is slowly emerging whether it will be more of a surprise if the disturbance starts or if it doesn't." Reader David Moore sent this article about slow moving solar flares: https://bit.ly/498uM16 Articles about the consequences of a modern Carrington Event: https://bit.ly/49vdPgW https://bit.ly/3wf09bS Two stories about Radio Blackout: https://bit.ly/4bzFQpM https://bit.ly/3UztJTd Nice pictures of a Big Sunspot: https://solarchatforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=43915 https://bit.ly/3uvFJL5 Our first Solar Maximum? https://www.sidc.be/article/first-sc25-maximum The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/dKZ-qeDbxkc Solar news articles: https://bit.ly/3uqpnmV https://bit.ly/3SMk8Y1 https://bit.ly/3SPqwxD https://bit.ly/4bw6j7y https://bit.ly/49Kyoq7 https://bit.ly/42v9xns https://bit.ly/3SzUzrQ Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating. For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere . An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ . Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins . Sunspot numbers for February 1 through 7 2024 were 113, 131, 123, 138, 152, 175, and 164, with a mean of 142.3. 10.7 cm flux was 136.9, 142.6, 156.4, 170.4, 173.4, 190.3, and 188.4, with a mean of 165.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 3, 3, 6, 7, 8, and 4, with a mean of 5.1. Middle latitude A index was 4, 3, 2, 5, 6, 8, and 3, with a mean of 4.4. NNNN /EX
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