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Propagation Forecast Bulletin 5 ARLP005-24
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP005 ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP05 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 5 ARLP005 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA February 2, 2024 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP005 ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA "ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0248 UTC/02 FEBRUARY 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE. "A CME was observed from 01/0800 UT. This CME is expected to pass mostly above the Earth, however a glancing blow is possible either late UT day 03-Feb or early UT day 04-Feb to cause possible G1-G2 geomagnetic storming. A coronal hole wind stream may also contribute to enhanced geomagnetic activity. "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 04-05 FEBRUARY 2024." Seven new sunspot groups emerged this reporting week, but solar activity was lower. One new spot appeared on January 26, two more on January 28, three more on January 30 and one more on January 31. Then on February 1 five new sunspot groups emerged, and the daily sunspot number rose to 113, far above the average for the previous seven days. Average daily sunspot number dropped from 130.6 to 71.6, and average daily solar flux declined from 173.3 to 145.4. Average planetary A index changed from 7.4 to 6.9, while middle latitude averages shifted from 5.1 to 5.6. What is the outlook for the next month? Looks like a modest peak in solar flux at 175 on February 20. Predicted solar flux is 135 on February 2, 140 on February 3-5, 145 on February 6-8, then a jump to 165 on February 9-11, 170 on February 12, 165 on February 13-15, 170 on February 16-19, 175 on February 20, then 170, 165, 160, 150, 140, 135 and 140 on February 21-27, 145 on February 28-29, and 150 on March 1-2, then 155 on March 3-4, 160 on March 5, and 165 on March 6-9. Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 2-3, then 14, 20 and 8 on February 4-6, then 5 on February 7-16, 8 on February 17-18, 5 on February 19-24, then 10, 12 and 10 on February 25-27, and 5 on February 28 through March 2, then 10 on March 3-4, and 5 on March 5 through the middle of the month. Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere - February 1, 2024, from OK1HH: "A week ago, it appeared that more activity would come from the large sunspot group AR3561, but it has been quiet. Then another larger one, AR3559, surprised us when energetic protons began to penetrate the Earth's atmosphere in the early hours of January 29 UTC. "Such an event is called a 'radiation storm,' denoted by the letter S, and this one was classified as S2. The letter R denotes the effects of solar X-ray and ultraviolet radiation, which in this case was caused by a fairly massive M6.8 class solar flare. The Dellinger effect with a maximum at 0632 UTC affected frequencies up to 30 MHz in the region of Western Australia and the adjacent Indian Ocean. Protons with an energy of 100 MeV hit the Earth's atmosphere for almost the entire day on 29 January, and protons with lower energies continued to hit on the following days. "Only isolated, weaker C-class flares were observed in the following days. However, the Earth was not affected by the CME; its magnetic field remained calm to slightly unsettled, and so shortwave propagation conditions were generally between average to slightly above average. However, the increased solar radiation caused regular daily openings of the upper shortwave bands, including the 10-meter band." UC Berkeley article on Sunspots: https://bit.ly/48ThdlY Two articles on a Solar Cycle peak this year: https://bit.ly/48Yjcpa https://bit.ly/3u53ZDK Two articles about the Sun's poles reversing: https://bit.ly/4bvvmro https://bit.ly/42kfljC "Times Now" article about Radio Blackout: https://bit.ly/3HGWYfn Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating. For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere . An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ . Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins . Sunspot numbers for January 25 through 31 2024 were 101, 97, 52, 75, 48, 53, and 75, with a mean of 71.8. 10.7 cm flux was 160.5, 156.7, 148.1, 141.1, 140.3, 135, and 136.2, with a mean of 145.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 6, 5, 8, 9, 8, and 6, with a mean of 6.9. Middle latitude A index was 4, 4, 4, 5, 7, 8, and 7, with a mean of 5.6. NNNN /EX
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