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Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44 ARLP044-23
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP044 ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP44 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44 ARLP044 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA November 3, 2023 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP044 ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA "GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2333 UTC on 02 NOVEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE. "A possible glancing impact from a CME first observed on 31-Oct combined with a glancing impact from a CME first observed on 2-Nov is expected to produce a chance of G1 geomagnetic activity on 4-Nov and G0-G1 activity on 5-Nov." Seven new sunspot groups emerged in this reporting week, October 26 through November 1. Two on October 26, one on October 27, another on October 28, two more on October 31 and another on November 1. One more appeared on November 2. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 41.9 to 76.7, while average daily solar flux increased from 123.5 to 137.5. Predicted solar flux is 158, 160, 162, 158 and 155 on November 3-7, 150 on November 8-9, 148, 136, and 134 on November 10-12, 130 on November 13-15, then 125, 123, and 120 on November 16-18, then 125 on November 19-22, and 130 on November 23-26, then 132 on November 27, 134 on November 28-29, 136 on November 30 through December 2, 140 and 138 on December 3-4, 136 on December 5-6, then 138. 136 and 134 on December 7-9 and 130 on December 10-12. Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 12, 8 and 5 on November 3-7, 12 on November 8-9, 8 on November 10, 5 on November 11-13, then 8 and 10 on November 14-15, 5 on November 16-21, then 15, 10, 15, 15, 20, 15 and 8 on November 22-28, 5 on November 29 through December 5, then 12 and 8 on December 6-7 and 5 on December 8-10. "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere - November 03, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. "The coronal hole we saw in the northwest of the solar disk has already fallen beyond its limb. Now we're looking at another fairly large coronal hole in the southeast. At the same time, both sunspot and flare activity decreased in the west and increased in the east. Fortunately, the solar wind from the eastern half of the disk rarely reaches the Earth's neighborhood. Therefore, the frequency of geomagnetic disturbances is lower. "This is valid for most days in the first half of November. As the solar activity could also increase, we can expect more stable and overall, slightly better shortwave propagation. After that, however, the solar flux will gradually return from 160 perhaps to somewhere near 120. Therefore, MUF values will begin to slowly decline. "As long as the coronal hole remains stable and persists in the solar disk after passing through the central meridian, disturbances will become more frequent. Therefore, shortwave propagation will gradually deteriorate, but no reliable forecast can be made very far ahead." From Dave, N4KZ in Frankfort, Kentucky, EM78: "At 1545 UTC on October 7, I experienced the thrill of a lifetime when 3B9FR, Robert on Rodrigues Island in the Indian Ocean, answered my CQ on 6-meter FT8. I had already worked 3B9FR 10 times over the last 20 years on CW, SSB and FT8 on various HF bands but I never anticipated working him on 6 meters. "The morning began when I worked HC5VF at 1534 UTC with a very strong signal. Hearing nothing else from the south, I turned my Yagi toward Europe hoping perhaps someone there would decode my CQ. After six unsuccessful CQs, Robert called me. I took a screenshot of our QSO. I plan to have it framed for the shack wall. According to his QRZ.com page, Robert runs 75 watts to a new 6-element quad on 6 meters. I was running 250 watts to a 3-element Yagi at 60 feet. "On October 23, from 2059 to 2359 UTC, I worked 18 South Americans on 6-meter FT8. Stations worked were in Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil. Then the band changed around to the Pacific and for the first time in some 30 years on 6 meters, I copied stations in Australia. I decoded five stations in VK4, two in New Caledonia and 3D2AG in Fiji. Sadly, despite numerous calls, I did not work anyone in the Pacific that day. But it was still a thrill to hear those entities for the first time on 6 meters. And of course, the QSO into the Indian Ocean, at a distance greater than 10,000 miles, made up for it. "I was very active on 2-meter SSB and CW from the mid-1970s until about 2010 when I grew bored and took down my 2-meter Yagi. Earlier this year, I felt the urge to return to the low end of 2 meters. This time, FT8 seems to mostly have replaced SSB and CW for weak-signal work. Since June 28, I have worked 30 states and 102 grid squares with my new 13-element Yagi. "The big five-day tropo opening in August produced more than 160 QSOs from Colorado to Connecticut. In the middle of the afternoon toward the end of that August opening, I decoded both ends of a QSO between WQ0P in KS and W1VD in CT, I had worked both of them earlier, but it was really something to watch them working over about a 1,500 mile path." From Bob, KB1DK: "Conditions on 10 meters were fair for the CQWW SSB contest this past weekend. While propagation was good from Connecticut to the Middle East, south and central Europe, signals from Scandinavia, and north/central Russia were barely readable. This was in sharp contrast to the conditions on the weekend of October 14th when I worked 45 stations with strong signals in the Scandinavia Contest on Saturday morning. "On October 15th, I operated mobile for the first time. Using an old Kenwood TS-570 and a quarter wave vertical magnetically mounted on the roof, I logged 28 QSOs in 2 hours including South Africa, Greece, South Russia and Scandinavia with respectable reports from a fixed hilltop location. It was well worth the effort to wire up the car. I did not want to miss out on the great propagation on 10 meters, especially after the conditions this past spring and last fall. "If you have an old rig, consider investing for a magnetic mount and a 10 meter whip. You won't be disappointed. My next operating location will be from the beach on Long Island Sound. "All the best from the east coast." K7SS reported to the Western Washington DX Club that he worked 10 meters only in the CQ World Wide SSB DX Contest, with 643 QSOs in 28 zones and 75 countries for a claimed score of 177,984 points. Articles about an early peak of Solar Cycle 25: https://bit.ly/3FF26jh https://bit.ly/40ndQQN https://bit.ly/45REtys Trailblazing female astronomers, one is Mrs. Annie Maunder: https://bit.ly/478EfEo New video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/M4VBAuSpVZc Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ . Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins . Sunspot numbers for October 26 through November 1, 2023 were 57, 66, 70, 61, 62, 116, and 105, with a mean of 76.7. 10.7 cm flux was 126.4, 127.5, 128, 135.2, 139.7, 147.3, and 158.6, with a mean of 137.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 11, 19, 28, 12, 9, and 9, with a mean of 15.9. Middle latitude A index was 18, 9, 13, 21, 10, 6, and 6, with a mean of 11.9. NNNN /EX
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