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Propagation Forecast Bulletin 42 ARLP042-23
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP042 ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP42 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 42 ARLP042 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA October 20, 2023 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP042 ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA Sunspot activity dropped dramatically this week, with only two new sunspot groups emerging, on October 14 and 16. Compared to last week, the average daily sunspot number slipped from 144.1 to 89.4, and average daily solar flux from 159.1 to 145.1. Average daily planetary A index changed from 7.6 to 6.4, and average daily middle latitude A index from 8.3 to 5. Predicted solar flux is 128 and 130 October 20-21, 132 on October 22-23, 134 on October 24-25, 136 on October 26, 145 on October 27-28, 150 on October 29 through November 5, 140 on November 6-9, 135 on November 10-11, 145 and 140 on November 12-13, 135 on November 14-15, then 140 on November 16-18, 135 and 140 on November 19-20, 145 on November 21-24, and 150 through the end of the month. Predicted planetary A index is 22, 14, 12, 10 and 8 on October 20-24, 5 on October 25-26, 8 on October 27-30, 10 and 12 on October 31 through November 1, 5 on November 2-8, 12 and 8 on November 9-10, 5 on November 11-12, 12 on November 13-14, then 10 and 8 on November 15-16, 5 on November 17-22, and 8 on November 23-26. Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere - October 19, 2023 from OK1HH: "In the last ten days, the number of sunspot groups has dropped from ten to three. At the same time the solar flux has dropped significantly - from 166 to 135. The last two slightly larger solar flares were observed on 16 October. The larger of the two occurred in AR3467. The magnetic filament associated with it exploded and blew a CME into space. "According to NASA's models, while it didn't head directly for Earth, it still likely hit it on October 18 (the original estimate was that it would happen a day later). Which, while not enough to cause a geomagnetic storm, was enough to reach an 'unsettled' state. "This was followed by an erratic MUF from 18 October and then a decline on 19 October. These lines are written at a time when short periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are not yet ruled out on 19 October, with a possible duration into the first half of 20 October UT. "A return of larger sunspots and a rise in solar flux towards 150 can be expected by the end of the month." Regarding 10 meter comments by K7SS in last week's Propagation Forecast bulletin, Angel Santana, WP3GW of Trujillo-Alto, Puerto Rico responded, "I second Dan's, K7SS comments on getting on the air even if you are a Tech on 10 meters. "I can attest that the band is in good shape: Can contact European stations with ease even if my antenna is pointing to the US and when it is 2pm local can still contact them when they are at their local 8-10 pm. "My score in contests recently reflect more QSOs on 10 meters and now that we are in contest season it is a great opportunity to get on the air and see how many countries you can work. "You can also check and hear SSTV signals on 28.680 MHz as of late confirming that the band is truly live. And of course, the FM (29-29.8 MHz) segment." Dr. Julio Medina, NP3CW wrote: "Sending some information of activity in 6M band since May to October 2023. "Been copying stations from Japan, China, Africa, and many others such as Philippines on FT8 early in the morning from 1200-1400 UTC in FT8 in the 6m band." Jon, N0JK wrote on October 6: "The 6 meter sporadic-E - linking to TEP (trans equatorial propagation) openings usually occur in the afternoon. But there was a late evening Es -- TEP opening on October 6. "Earlier in the afternoon October 6 I had some weak TEP from South America to Kansas. It faded out around 0030 UTC. Then some sporadic-E took place. Sporadic-E is rare in October, the only month with less Es is March. That itself is noteworthy, and I logged stations in Arizona and northern Mexico starting at 0100 UTC October 7 on 6 meter FT8. Then at 0133 UTC I began seeing a FT8 trace at 2,500 Hz. Then it decoded, and was Dale, CE2SV (FF47) sending a report to W0SZ in Colorado. When they finished, I called CE2SV. After a couple of calls Dale came back and we completed a contact at 0136 UTC. His signal varied from -10 dB to -17 dB. "What is remarkable is I was operating from home using just an attic dipole for an antenna. I also decoded CE3SOC and XQ3MCC. N0LL in EM09 also worked some South American stations. This was 'evening' TEP, which typically has a shorter range than afternoon TEP. The evening TEP signals usually have a distinctive 'TEP flutter' sound and sometimes don't decode with FT8. Q65 can be a better digital mode for evening TEP. "I saw on the ON4KST 6 meter chat page N9PGG in North Carolina worked FK8HA and VK4 stations. This was a sporadic-E link (on the same Es I had to the south) out to the South Pacific. "On another note -- stations in Central America, the Caribbean and northern South America have been making 6 meter Long Path contacts with east Asia and Malaysia from 1200 - 1600 UTC the last couple of mornings. "6 meter long path is best with high solar flux and low geomagnetic activity. "2023-10-07 15:16 9Z4Y (FK90HM) 50.313.0 FT8 YB0MZI (OI33JQ) LoTW eQSL 18626 km "2023-10-07 15:00 9Z4Y (FK90HM) 50.313.0 FT8 YB0SAS (OI33JS) LoTW eQSL 18623 km "2023-10-07 14:54 9Z4Y (FK90HM) 50.313.0 FT8 YB0COU (OI33IU) LoTW eQSL 18611 km "2023-10-07 14:52 JA6GNL (PM53GO) 50.310.0 FT8 PJ4MM (FK52VE) LoTW 14545 km "FT8 CQ AS: "2023-10-07 14:38 PJ4MM (FK52VE) 50.313.0 FT8 4W/JH2EUV (PI21) LoTW 18502 km +12" A video about predicting Solar Flares (Helioseismology): https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oxp24 A video about a Class X2 flare: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oxpu2 A video about a Cannibal CME: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oumkk A report about Solar Cycle history: https://bit.ly/3FpTqwN The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/8xHnsvBFTgE Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ . Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins . Sunspot numbers for October 12 through 18, 2023 were 126, 91, 100, 92, 106, 57, and 54, with a mean of 89.4. 10.7 cm flux was 157.1, 149, 148.2, 144.6, 144, 137.3, and 135.3, with a mean of 145.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 13, 8, 4, 4, 3, and 9, with a mean of 6.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 11, 6, 2, 3, 2, and 8, with a mean of 5. NNNN /EX
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